tabelaQuem esperava que o Vasco fosse conquistar o acesso para a Primeira Divisão e consequentemente o título da Série B com várias rodadas de antecedência, até pela campanha realizada no primeiro semestre, quando foi campeão carioca e ficou 34 jogos invicto, deve estar se surpreendendo. Apesar de o retorno à elite do futebol estar bem encaminhado, a equipe comandada pelo técnico Jorginho ainda não está garantida faltando oito jogos para o término da competição. De quebra, o Gigante da Colina perdeu a liderança para o Atlético-GO, que tem 55 pontos pontos, um a mais que o time de São Januário. Mas nada que seja capaz de causar um grande impacto negativo nesta reta final de temporada.

Segundo o site Infobola.com.br, do matemático Tristão Garcia, o Vasco tem 95% de chances de subir contra 97% do Dragão. Antes da vitória sobre o Londrina por 1 a 0, na Arena da Amazônia, pela 30ª rodada, este índice era de 87%, enquanto o da equipe goiana era de 91%. Na sequência, aparecem Avaí e Náutico, com 51% e 50% respectivamente, de probabilidade para subir. No entanto, outros nove clubes seguem no páreo por uma das quatro vagas disponíveis para a Série A: Londrina (43%), Bahia (26%), Brasil de Pelotas (12%), Criciúma (11%), Ceará (6%), CRB (4%), Luverdense (2%), Vila Nova (2%) e Goiás (1%). Na opinião de Tristão Garcia, o clube que somar 63 pontos praticamente garante o seu acesso.

O levantamento tem como base o mando de campo dos jogos e o retrospecto das equipes na competição, bem como a dificuldade dos jogos em função dos adversários. Na luta pelo título da Segundona, a diferença na tabela de classificação é de apenas um ponto, mas nas estatísticas o Atlético-GO tem 52% de possibilidades de ser campeão contra 36% do Vasco. Embora as chances sejam menores, Náutico e Avaí, ambos com 4%, além de Londrina (3%) e Bahia (1%) continuam na briga. Tristão estabelece 72 pontos como uma pontuação segura para um clube conquistar a Série B.

Na luta para se livrar do fantasma do rebaixamento, o Tupi-MG, que está em antepenúltimo, tem 95% de risco de cair. Outras equipes bem ameaçadas de disputar a Série C em 2017 são o Joinville (92%), penúltimo colocado com a mesma pontuação do Galo Carijó (26), e o Sampaio Corrêa (90%), lanterna da competição com 25 pontos. A situação do Bragantino (79%) também é preocupante, ainda mais se levarmos em consideração que o time já entrou em campo pela 31ª rodada – com a vitória em casa por 2 a 0 sobre o Criciúma, o Massa Bruta chegou aos 30 pontos. Oeste (37%), Paraná (6%) e Paysandu (1%) são as demais equipes que ainda não se livraram definitivamente da degola. Segundo Tristão, a equipe que fizer 46 pontos escapa do rebaixamento, mas esta pontuação pode diminuir para 45.

 

Fonte: Globoesporte

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